Melted Lead

Even before the Cast Lead operation began, we had analyzed and predicted its inevitable result. During the operation, we witnessed an extreme dichotomy. On the one hand, we experienced the wondrous awakening of a nation that has been browbeaten and brainwashed for years. On the other, we were frustrated by leadership clueless as to how to lead these awakening forces in a positive direction. There was no doubt that it would turn the awe-inspiring self-sacrifice of our soldiers and the fruits of their victory into - defeat.

Both the US and Egypt expected Israel to strike a fatal and final blow upon Iran's representatives in Gaza. Now that Israel has proven that it cannot triumph, the nations of the world will join up with the strong side. From their point of view, they are completely right. The pressure on Israel to continue withdrawals will steadily increase. Netanyahu is careful not to commit himself to preserving Judea and Samaria in Israel's control. Obama is not interested in waiting. The picture is very clear.

More than any other place in Israel, Gaza symbolizes Israel's rejection of its land - the modern day sin of the spies. Today, whoever dares to say that Israel must re-conquer and resettle Gaza is immediately relegated to a lonely place outside the bounds of legitimate public discourse. Israel's leadership (including Netanyahu) is careful to repeat that we must not conquer Gaza. To do so, would be to negate the Oslo rationale. If Israel were to re-conquer Gaza, any further withdrawals would be totally irrelevant. But all three major parties - the Likud, Kadimah and Labor - have built their platforms around withdrawal from Judea and Samaria (with slight nuances between the parties). They have not freed themselves of the Betrayal of the Land of Israel Principle. That is why they cannot conquer Gaza. As far as they are concerned, there is a broad national consensus to reject it. If they were to conquer Gaza, they may get stuck, G-d forbid, with the Land of Israel.

Israel will not allow itself to win by conquering Gaza. But it won't even allow itself to win by destroying the Hamas. To do so would mean that we would have to institute a military government in Gaza. We would have to assume responsibility - or some minor form of sovereignty. Our leaders are not open to that, either.

As we wrote in last week's update, two days before the ceasefire:
There is no national leader today in Israel who is willing to simply declare that this is our land. Including Gaza. And if we can't say that, we can't win. The real purpose of the current war is not to conquer our land. The real purpose of this war is to re-adjust the post-Disengagement reality so that we can abandon our land without getting hit with missiles.

And that is impossible.

Eventually, the current euphoria will fade into deep frustration. It is likely that the exasperation will be channeled toward the current government and that support for the Likud will grow.

The first part of that forecast began to become reality last Saturday night. Now we can look forward to the realization of the second part of the forecast. It is entirely likely that the Likud will win over thirty seats in the upcoming elections - and that the Likud candidates that Netanyahu tried so hard to eliminate will be meeting him in the halls of the Knesset.