Saturday, February 14, 2009

A Brief Analysis of Israel's Elections

By Moshe Feiglin

Israel is now entering a complex twilight zone. On the one hand, it is quite clear to all that the war that Netanyahu waged against me caused the Likud to lose mandates. On the other hand, nobody but us dares to admit that the Likud suffered a defeat - and to implement the measures that need to be taken as a result. Everybody is dusting off their government suits and comforting themselves with the victory of the right wing bloc.

Within a short time, lack of stability and inability to implement policy will lead to new elections for the head of Likud. We must prepare ourselves for the battle for leadership of the Likud and of the State of Israel. The past two months have proven to all the Likud members that a faith-based candidate does not repel voters. On the contrary - the Likud cannot win without him!

The battle for leadership of the Likud and of our country begins today from a position totally different from our position two months ago. There is no doubt that forces larger and stronger than us will unite to defeat us. But reality will point time and again to the faith-based alternative. Reality will prove that only a faith-based leader can lead the Likud and the entire national camp to a decisive victory and save Israel from the paralysis and self-destruction that G-dless leadership has wrought upon it.

The following graph clearly shows the patterns that led to the Likud's slow but steady decline over the election campaign.

Conclusions:
A. There is complete symmetry between the decline of the Likud and the rise of Lieberman's party, and later of the National Union.

B. The Likud's decline begins when it loses its rightist/nationalist hue as a result of Netanyahu's battle against Feiglin.

C. From the beginning of December and until the elections, Lieberman and the National Union gained 11 mandates at the Likud's expense. The Likud could have won at least 38 mandates in these elections.

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